Delta Scenarios

Over the centuries, we have created a liveable delta with a system of flood defences that protects us and a fine-meshed water system that allows us to use fresh water and drain off surplus water. New insights into global climate change, the consequences of emission reductions in the Netherlands and socioeconomic growth show that the water system is coming under pressure. In the future, we will no longer be able to fully support all functions with the current water system. Learning to live with water also means accepting certain consequences of climate change. 

Four possible futures

The water agendas for 2050 and 2100 were visualised by updating the 2017 delta scenarios in 2024 on behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and the Delta Commissioner. The 2024 delta scenarios describe four possible futures:  

• Space: limited growth of the population and the economy, limited climate change. 
• Warm: limited growth of the population and the economy, major climate change. 
• Rapid: strong growth of the population and the economy, limited climate change. 
• Steam: strong growth of the population and the economy, major climate change. 

All four of these scenarios are equally plausible. So they are not options; we have to take all four into account. The delta scenarios provide a broad bandwidth for the future: if things are better than expected, worse than expected, and everything in between. 

The delta scenarios do not describe desirable futures and they do not contain any new policy. They are based on a bandwidth of climate change, the efforts made by the Netherlands to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and socioeconomic developments such as population growth, economic growth and spatial developments. They therefore paint an integrated picture on a national scale of the resulting agendas relating to freshwater availability, problems with excessive water and flood risk management.  

Major challenges in all scenarios

All the scenarios result in major challenges relating to water shortages, problems with excessive water and flood risk management. Even in the most favourable scenarios, the challenges mount up considerably because of the effects of climate change on river discharges, precipitation patterns and sea level rise. And because of the energy and mobility transitions, and the raising of the level of groundwater level in low-lying peatland. And also because of population and economic growth, and related changes in water and land use. In the run-up to 2050, the challenges relating to water shortages and problems with excessive water will already become larger. After 2050, climate change will accelerate in the Warm and Steam scenarios. In Rapid and Space, climate change will stabilise but sea level rise will continue. As 2100 approaches, all the challenges will be much larger if the world fails to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.  

We will increasingly encounter an accumulation of water agendas: every area will have to address not only water shortages but also problems with excessive water and flood risk management. How? That will vary from area to area. The Delta Scenarios provide a picture of the agendas and they can be used to work out solutions and assess their effectiveness. They can be used to provide an understanding of where the difficulties will be in the medium and long term. 

The Delta Scenarios are an important cornerstone of Dutch policy. They are also important for the periodical evaluation of the Delta Programme, in which we scrutinise the current delta plans, decisions and strategies. 

Download the main report for the 2024 Delta Scenarios
Download the brochure for the 2024 Delta Scenarios