TomTom for water management in the future
The climate is changing and as far as long-term economic development is concerned, we are also operating in the dark. The future is uncertain. Scientists recognise this uncertainty and want to help decision-makers to make decisions that are robust or flexible, or both. We can draw an ‘adaptation map’ by exploring sustainable, solution-focused approaches. This map, a kind of TomTom for water management in the future, makes it easier to make optimal decisions. “There is still much to be gained from this,” according to PhD candidate Marjolijn Haasnoot of Deltares.
Ms Haasnoot, who performed research at the universities of Utrecht and Twente, will be defending her thesis on Thursday, 20 June at the symposium on “How Can Science Support Decision-making Under Uncertainty?” Professor Cees Veerman is chair of the symposium, and Professor Pavel Kabat of IIASA, Professor Sybe Schaap of the TU Delft and Pieter Bloemen of the Delta Commissioner’s staff are among the prominent speakers.
Smart thinking
Our response to the 1953 disaster was reactive in terms of solutions to keep the Netherlands safe from flooding. The realisation of the Delta Works is a good example of this. Today, we are looking to the future, planning for the mid-long term up to 2050 and for the long term up to 2100. We are doing this in the Delta Programme. Choosing long-term measures is no easy task. In her research, Ms Haasnoot not only looks at the distant future, 50 or 100 years ahead, but she also places emphasis on taking the right paths to that future. Anything can happen along the road to the future, including high water or long periods of drought; we may gain more knowledge about climate change, or the social value placed on nature or safety may change. These are all uncertain factors but they will play a role in determining the measures we will take over the course of time.
Marjolijn Haasnoot: “By exploring all kinds of different paths to the future you can determine whether or not a solution-focused approach that you choose today is sustainable, or if it is a dead-end. In this way you can adopt solutions that are robust and/or flexible. By “flexible solutions” we mean taking small steps that ultimately contribute to one large step.” There are solutions that are less sustainable. “Building on flood plains, for example, limits the options in terms of measures. If you have to choose a solution that must be future-proof, a robust solution is preferred: climate dikes, for instance. A good example of a flexible solution for coastal defence is sand suppletion. It is reasonably easy and relatively inexpensive to adapt to unforeseen conditions.”
Pieter Bloemen: “Thinking in terms of flexibility, robustness and adaptation paths is at the heart of the way in which strategies are developed in the Delta Programme: adaptive delta management. The knowledge developed is used to the maximum in practice. Substantive challenges include the governance side of this working method: how can you ensure that options are kept open, how do you manage the portfolio of options?”
Accept and explore
Ms Haasnoot recommends that policymakers accept that there are uncertainties and therefore advises them to look for answers by exploring all possible solution-focused approaches. There is a lot of interest in this within the water sector, both at home and abroad. The transport sector and various spatial planning disciplines have also shown interest.